Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 1/24/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns · Jan 24, 2024

Updated Jan 24, 2024 8:42 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.3 treys per game this year, significantly more than his 8.2 rate last year.
Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic measures in the 99th percentile for playing time, averaging a whopping 36.8 minutes per game this year.
The Mavericks have been the 7th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games as the home team.
Luka Doncic has made 8.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season.
Luka Doncic will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home generally raises player performance across the board.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has averaged 0.2 technical fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the NBA when it comes to getting T'ed up (99th percentile).
This year when they are on their home court, opposing starting PGs have registered 12.2 points per game (15th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Phoenix Suns, marking this as a challenging matchup for offensive performance.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 8th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games when playing at home.
The Mavericks are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from facing the 5th-least up-tempo pace visiting team in the league over the last 15 games (the Suns).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about more chances for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks grade out 9thworst in in the league with a mere 9.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.