Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/30/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 30, 2023

Updated Dec 31, 2023 1:38 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has totaled 33.7 points per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA by this standard: 100th percentile.
Relative to last season's 8.2 mark, Luka Doncic's three-point attempts have spiked this season to 10.4 per game.
Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic lands in the 98th percentile for playing time, averaging an enormous 36.5 minutes per game while playing on the road this year.
The matchup against the Warriors is a favorable one for three-point shots; the other team's starting PGs have compiled the 25th-highest 3-point rate in the league this year (38.4%).
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

The Mavericks rank as the 4th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 10 games while playing on the road.
The Warriors have played at the 6th-most lethargic tempo in the league over the last 10 games in their home stadium, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Mavericks.
While playing at home, the Warriors have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.6) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
In contrast to last season's 10.5 rate, Luka Doncic's number of foul shots has dropped this season to 8.5 foul shots per game.
Luka Doncic figures to experience a decrease in output for all stats as a result of playing away from home in this contest.

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