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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 12/14/2023

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has converted a whopping 11.6 field goals per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 11.2 rate last year.

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.2 threes per game this season, a big improvement over his 8.2 rate last season.

Luka Doncic has played 36.1 minutes per game on the road this year, placing him in the 98th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the league.

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 7th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games on their home court.

Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Mavericks rank 9thbest in in the league with 11.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This year, the other team's starting PGs have averaged 39.0% on field goal attempts (15th-weakest in the NBA) against the Timberwolves, identifying this as a challenging matchup.

The Mavericks are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo road offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Timberwolves).

Relative to last season's 10.5 rate, Luka Doncic's number of free throws has diminished this season to 8.1 free throws per game.

The matchup vs. Minnesota is a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a mere 3.4 free throws per game this year when the Minnesota Timberwolves have the home court advantage (6th-least in the league).

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