Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/8/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 8, 2023

Updated Dec 9, 2023 3:13 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has sunk 12.4 baskets per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year.
In contrast to last season's 8.2 clip, Luka Doncic's shots from behind the three-point arc have jumped this season to 10.0 per game.
Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic slots into the 92nd percentile for playing time, totaling an enormous 34.3 minutes per game while playing away from home this year.
In terms of shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's superb 119.7 points per game comes in as the 5th-highest in the league this year.
Since the start of last season when they are on their home court, opposing starting PGs have averaged 36.2% on threes (23rd-highest in the league) vs. the Portland Trail Blazers, identifying this as a good matchup.

Favors Under

The Dallas Mavericks will likely see a decline in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the 3rd-least up-tempo pace home offense in the NBA this year (the Portland Trail Blazers).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks rank 8thworst in in the NBA with just 9.9 offensive rebounds per game this year.
The Portland Trail Blazers have given up the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.8) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
In comparison to last season's 10.5 clip, Luka Doncic's number of free throws has fallen this season to 7.9 free throws per game.
Luka Doncic will likely suffer a drop-off in productivity for all stats considering playing on the visting team in this contest.