Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 11/25/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

LA Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 25, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 3:39 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has scored 30.5 points per game on his home court this year, putting him in the 99th percentile -- among the best in the NBA by this metric.
Luka Doncic has attempted 9.8 3-point shots per game this year, quite a bit more than his 8.2 rate last year.
In comparison to last season's 2.5 rate, Luka Doncic's personal fouls per game have fallen this season to 1.6.
The Mavericks check in as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA when playing at home this year.
The 4th-fastest pace-of-play offense in the league this year has been the Dallas Mavericks.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Los Angeles is a hard one; when the Clippers have the home court advantage, they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PGs this year (9.2).
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while playing away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing squads have collected 11.8 offensive boards per game (5th-most in the league) vs. the LA Clippers (lengthening possessions that can lead to further chances for offense).
Luka Doncic has attempted a measly 7.6 foul shots per game this season, significantly less than his 10.5 rate last season.
This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing starting PGs have attempted 2.0 foul shots per game (15th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Clippers, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.

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