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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 11/18/2023

Milwaukee Bucks vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic rates in the 98th percentile, registering a massive 29.0 points per game while at home this year.

Luka Doncic has attempted 9.9 shots from downtown per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 8.2 rate last year.

Luka Doncic has been called for a mere 1.8 personal fouls per game this season, quite a bit less than his 2.5 fouls per game last season.

The Mavericks have been the highest scoring offense in the league when playing away from home this year.

The matchup vs. the Milwaukee Bucks is a positive one; they have allowed the 27th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PGs this year (22.3).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Offensive rebounds continue possession and bring about further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks grade out 9thworst in in the league playing at home with only 9.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.

This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing squads have grabbed 12.8 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-highest in the NBA) against the Milwaukee Bucks (saving possessions that can produce extra chances for offense).

In contrast to last year's 10.5 rate, Luka Doncic's number of foul shots has fallen this year to 7.7 foul shots per game.

Luka Doncic ought to suffer a reduction in output in all stat categories due to playing away from hom in this game.

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