Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 10/25/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks · Oct 25, 2023

Updated Oct 25, 2023 11:07 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic rates in the 100th percentile, posting a monstrous 32.4 points per game this year.
Luka Doncic has attempted 10.6 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games, core.FORMAT(ABS(DIFF_RATE),1) more than he's attempted over the course of the season.
Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic registers in the 98th percentile for playing time, totaling a colossal 35.8 minutes per game on the road this year.
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games as the home team.
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing starting PGs have averaged 48.3% on field goal attempts (30th-best in the NBA) against the San Antonio Spurs, identifying this as a strong matchup.

Favors Under

Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks grade out 1stworst in in the league on their home court with a mere 7.6 offensive boards per game this year.
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing squads have snagged 11.2 offensive boards per game (8th-highest in the league) vs. the San Antonio Spurs (preserving possessions that can lead to bonus chances for offense).
This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 3.0 free throws per game (15th-lowest in the league) vs. the Spurs, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.
Luka Doncic ought to suffer a reduction in efficiency across the board on account of playing on the visting team in this contest.

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