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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 2/28/2023

Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-120/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has attempted 21.9 shots per game this year, putting him in the 100th percentile out of all players in the league.

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.6 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 more than he's attempted overall this year.

The Dallas Mavericks rank as the most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games as it relates to attempts from beyond the arc.

The matchup vs. the Pacers is a favorable one for scoring; the opposing team's starting PGs have put up the 30th-highest field goal percentage in the league this year (45.7%).

The Pacers have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to increase plays for the Mavericks.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Luka Doncic has averaged 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 0.9 more than he's averaged in all games this season at home.

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA this year.

The Dallas Mavericks check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

When playing on the road, the Pacers have given up the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.5) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. Indiana may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a measly 2.6 foul shots per game over the last 20 games when the Pacers are the visiting team (13th-least in the league).

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