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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 2/23/2023

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has attempted 21.9 shots per game this year, ranking in the 100th percentile among all players in the NBA.

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.6 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year.

The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 3rd-most aggressive offense in the league this year when it comes to 3-point attempts.

The matchup against San Antonio is a good one for shots from the field; when the Spurs are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting PGs have posted the 28th-highest FG% in the league this year (45.3%).

The Spurs have played at the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games away from their home stadium, which ought to increase plays for the Mavericks.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Luka Doncic has averaged 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 0.9 more than he's averaged in all games this year at home.

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league this year.

The Dallas Mavericks have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup against San Antonio may be a hard one for getting to the free throw line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted just 2.9 free throws per game over the last 25 games when the Spurs are on the road (12th-least in the NBA).

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