Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 2/15/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks · Feb 15, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has scored a whopping 33.2 points per game this year, a big improvement over his 29.0 points per game last year.
Luka Doncic has played 36.1 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 99th percentile.
The matchup vs. Bruce Brown is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when facing opposing starting PGs this year, they have tallied a massive 2.2 threes per game (100th percentile).
The Nuggets have played at the 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to boost possessions for the Mavericks.
Luka Doncic has attempted 11.1 free throws per game this year, significantly more than his 7.8 rate last year.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has attempted a measly 7.8 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this season, quite a bit less than his 9.0 rate last season.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA while playing away from home this year.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league without the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
Luka Doncic will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium generally decreases player production in all stat categories.

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