Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 2/13/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Feb 13, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has scored a terrific 33.3 points per game this year, a significant increase from his 29.0 points per game last year.
Luka Doncic has tallied 35.7 minutes per game when playing at home this year, putting him in the 98th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 6th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The matchup vs. D'Angelo Russell is a favorable one for 3-point attempts; when facing fellow starting PGs this year, they have attempted a massive 6.3 3-point shots per game (97th percentile).
The Timberwolves have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games away from their home stadium, which ought to boost opportunities for the Mavericks.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has attempted a mere 7.9 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 9.0 rate last season.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 5 games on their home court.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

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