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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 2/11/2023

Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-120/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has scored a terrific 33.4 points per game this year, quite a bit more than his 29.0 points per game last year.

Luka Doncic has tallied 36.0 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 99th percentile.

The Dallas Mavericks have been the 3rd-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc.

The matchup vs. De'Aaron Fox is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when Fox is playing at home opposing starting PGs this year, they have successfully made a monstrous 41.7% of their 3-pointers (100th percentile).

The Kings have played at the 3rd-speediest pace in the league over the last 25 games in their home city, which ought to lead to more possessions for the Mavericks.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Luka Doncic has attempted a measly 7.8 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this season, significantly lower than his 9.0 rate last season.

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league away from home this year.

The Dallas Mavericks have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Luka Doncic will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court usually reduces player performance for all stats.

More Luka Doncic Player Props

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