Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 12/23/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Made 3 Point Shots

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs · Dec 23, 2023

Updated Dec 23, 2023 8:40 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-141/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has attempted 10.2 three-pointers per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 8.2 rate last year.
Among all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic measures in the 99th percentile for playing time, averaging a massive 36.9 minutes per game this year.
The matchup vs. San Antonio is a positive one for 3-point shots; when the Spurs are the visiting squad, the other team's starting PGs have posted the 30th-highest three percentage in the NBA this year (48.4%).
The Mavericks will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league this year (the Spurs).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about added chances for scoring and assists, and the Mavericks grade out 10thbest in in the league with 11.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Luka Doncic measures in the 99th percentile for technical fouls, compiling a whopping 0.3 fouls per game this year.
The 10th-most lethargic pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 9 games has been the Mavericks.