Luka Doncic Assists - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Assists

Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat · Mar 7, 2024

Updated Mar 8, 2024 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-111/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has posted a whopping 9.8 assists per game this year, a big improvement over his 8.0 assists per game last year.
Luka Doncic has played 37.5 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 100th percentile.
The 3rd-quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks.
The Miami Heat have allowed the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.5) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Luka Doncic will hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage generally boosts stat production for all stats.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has accumulated 2.9 personal fouls per game over the last 15 games, 0.8 more than he's accumulated in all games this season.
The Mavericks are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this contest from competing against the slowest pace-of-play away offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Miami Heat).
The Mavericks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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