Luka Doncic Assists - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Assists

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 28, 2023 6:33 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-135/-101).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has put up an impressive 9.2 assists per game this season, a big improvement over his 8.0 assists per game last season.
Among all players in the league, Luka Doncic measures in the 98th percentile for playing time, posting an enormous 36.5 minutes per game when playing away from home this year.
The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games while on the road.

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has committed 0.1 technical fouls per game while playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling when it comes to technicals.
The Dallas Mavericks are expected to experience a decrease in plays today from squaring off against the 10th-most sluggish tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA as the road team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing teams have nabbed 12.5 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-most in the NBA) against the Timberwolves (retaining possessions that can lead to more chances for offense).
Luka Doncic will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage usually lowers stat production in all stat categories.

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