LeBron James Points - Player Prop Bet 12/25/2023

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LeBron James

NBA · Player Props

LeBron James

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Boston Celtics · Dec 25, 2023

Updated Dec 25, 2023 10:06 PM EST

Analysis

LeBron James Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

LeBron James has compiled 29.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 3.5 higher than he's compiled overall this season.
Among all players in the league, LeBron James registers in the 86th percentile for 3-point shots hit, registering 2.3 per game this year.
LeBron James has played 33.9 minutes per game while at home this year, placing him in the 89th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The matchup against the Celtics is a strong one for three-point shots; the other team's starting PGs have totaled the 30th-most threes per game in the NBA this year (3.0).
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 5th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games.

Favors Under

LeBron James has been called for 2.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 0.8 higher than he's been called for in all games this year at home.
The Los Angeles Lakers have been the 10th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Lakers will likely see a decline in plays today from facing the 5th-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Boston Celtics).
Over the last 5 games, opposing clubs have brought down 12.4 offensive rebounds per game (4th-most in the NBA) against the Boston Celtics (preserving possessions that can lead to added opportunities for offense).
This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 2.3 foul shots per game (15th-fewest in the league) against the Celtics, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.

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