LeBron James Points - Player Prop Bet 4/26/2023

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NBA · Player Props

LeBron James

F · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Los Angeles Lakers · Apr 26, 2023

Updated Apr 26, 2023 9:21 PM EST

Analysis

LeBron James Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

LeBron James has attempted 22.0 shots per game this year, ranking in the 100th percentile among all players in the league.
LeBron James has successfully made 2.7 treys per game over the last 10 games, 0.6 more than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the season.
LeBron James has tallied 35.4 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 97th percentile.
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA this year.
The Grizzlies have played at the 6th-quickest pace-of-play in the league this year, which should raise possessions for the Lakers.

Favors Under

LeBron James has accumulated 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's accumulated in all games this season.
The Los Angeles Lakers have been the least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year.
The matchup vs. Memphis is a hard one for three-pointers; when the Grizzlies have the home court advantage, the other team's starting SFs have posted the 15th-lowest three rate in the league this year (26.6%).
Playing at home, the Grizzlies have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.4) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
LeBron James will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium tends to reduces player performance in all stat categories.