LaMelo Ball Points - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2026

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NBA · Player Props

LaMelo Ball

G · Charlotte Hornets

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Charlotte Hornets · Jan 29, 2026

Updated Jan 29, 2026 8:28 PM EST

Analysis

LaMelo Ball Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-108/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Hornets are expected to see a rise in possessions in this game from competing against the 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 5 games (the Mavericks).
Offensive rebounds save possession and result in further chances for scoring and assists, and the Charlotte Hornets grade out 3rd-best in in the NBA without the home court advantage with 12.8 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

Favors Under

Compared to last season's 25.2 clip, LaMelo Ball's points per game have been reduced this season to 19.0.
The matchup against Dallas is a hard one for three-point attempts; when the Mavericks are on their home court, opposing starting PGs have totaled the 4th-least 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (4.6).
The Charlotte Hornets have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games on the road.
As a team, the Charlotte Hornets have been poor at getting to the free-throw line recently: worst in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road, tallying a mere 15.8 free throws per game.
Over the last 20 games, opposing starting PGs have attempted 2.9 foul shots per game (fewest in the league) against the Dallas Mavericks, struggling to get to the foul line.