LaMelo Ball Points - Player Prop Bet 3/23/2025

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LaMelo Ball

NBA · Player Props

LaMelo Ball

G · Charlotte Hornets

Points

Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets · Mar 23, 2025

Updated Mar 24, 2025 2:29 AM EST

Analysis

LaMelo Ball Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

LaMelo Ball has attempted 21.6 shots from the field per game this season, significantly more than his 19.2 rate last season.
In comparison to last year's 9.0 rate, LaMelo Ball's 3-point attempts have spiked this year to 11.4 per game.
Among all players in the league, LaMelo Ball registers in the 84th percentile for playing time, registering a massive 32.0 minutes per game on the road this year.
The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a good one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and bring about additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Hornets grade out 4th-best in in the NBA with 12.5 offensive boards per game this year.

Favors Under

LaMelo Ball has committed 3.7 personal fouls per game over the last 11 games while on the road, 0.9 higher than he's committed overall this year on the road.
The Hornets rank as the lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games.
The Charlotte Hornets have played at the 7th-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league on their home court this year, which should lead to decreased plays for the Charlotte Hornets.
LaMelo Ball is expected to see a decline in efficiency in all facets of the game due to being on the road in this contest.

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