Keon Ellis Points - Player Prop Bet 3/25/2026

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NBA · Player Props

Keon Ellis

G · Cleveland Cavaliers

Points

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat · Mar 25, 2026

Updated Mar 25, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Keon Ellis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-115/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cavaliers check in as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The matchup against Miami is a positive one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Heat are on the road, the other team's starting SFs have totaled the 3rd-most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.8).
The Heat have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to raise opportunities for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 6.0 free throws per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.

Favors Under

The Cleveland Cavaliers have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games at home.
Offensive rebounds save possession and result in bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Cavaliers rank 6thworst in in the NBA with the home court advantage with a mere 9.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.