Keon Ellis Points - Player Prop Bet 12/27/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Keon Ellis

G · Sacramento Kings

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 27, 2025

Updated Dec 27, 2025 5:20 PM EST

Analysis

Keon Ellis Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+100/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -146 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup against the Mavericks is a strong one for shot attempts from downtown; the opposition's starting SGs have tallied the 5th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.1).
The 8th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Sacramento Kings.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games away from their home city, which ought to raise plays for the Kings.
As a team, the Sacramento Kings have been great at getting to the foul line recently: best in the league over the last 5 games, totaling 32.6 free throw attempts per game.

Favors Under

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Kings grade out 7thworst in in the league with just 10.2 offensive boards per game this year.
Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 1.8 free throws per game (6th-fewest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.