Kelly Olynyk Points - Player Prop Bet 3/5/2024

NBA · Player Props

Kelly Olynyk

F-C · Toronto Raptors

Points

Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans · Mar 5, 2024

Updated Mar 6, 2024 12:43 AM EST

Analysis

Kelly Olynyk Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup against Jonas Valanciunas is a favorable one for shots from the field; when matched up against other starting Cs this year, they have converted an enormous 62.3% of their shot attempts from the field (96th percentile).
The speediest pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Raptors.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Raptors grade out 13thbest in in the league with the home court advantage with 12.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.
This year when they are playing at home, opposing squads have brought down 9.2 offensive boards per game (2nd-lowest in the league) vs. the Pelicans (losing possessions that could otherwise spark bonus chances for offense).
Kelly Olynyk has attempted 3.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 higher than he's attempted in all games this year.

Favors Under

Kelly Olynyk has sunk 28.0% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games at home, 9.5% lower than he's put through the net in all games this season on his home court.
Kelly Olynyk has attempted a lowly 1.8 3-point shots per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 3.5 rate last season.
Kelly Olynyk has tallied 2.6 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, placing him in the 89th percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
As it relates to threes, the Raptors's lackluster 10.8 sunk threes per game while on their home court measures as the weakest in the league this year.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home city, which should reduce opportunities for the Raptors.