Kelly Olynyk Assists - Player Prop Bet 2/23/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Kelly Olynyk

F-C · Toronto Raptors

Assists

Atlanta Hawks vs Toronto Raptors · Feb 23, 2024

Updated Feb 23, 2024 7:47 PM EST

Analysis

Kelly Olynyk Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kelly Olynyk has totaled 4.3 assists per game without the home court advantage this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile -- near the top of the league by this standard.
Kelly Olynyk has been called for a mere 2.6 personal fouls per game this season, quite a bit less than his 3.4 fouls per game last season.
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the fastest tempo in the league over the last 15 games in their home city, which should lead to more opportunities for the Toronto Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Compared to last year's 28.5 rate, Kelly Olynyk's playing time has regressed this year to 20.2 minutes per game.
This year, opposing teams have nabbed 11.2 offensive rebounds per game (7th-most in the NBA) vs. the Hawks (maintaining possessions that can create additional chances for offense).
Kelly Olynyk will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court usually worsens player production across the board.