Keegan Murray Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 2/14/2024

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Keegan Murray

NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Rebounds

Denver Nuggets vs Sacramento Kings · Feb 14, 2024

Updated Feb 15, 2024 2:13 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has put up 4.1 defensive boards per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA by this metric: 83rd percentile.
Among all players in the NBA, Keegan Murray rates in the 85th percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 31.9 minutes per game on the road this year.
The 2nd-fastest pace away team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Sacramento Kings.

Favors Under

Keegan Murray has been called for 2.6 personal fouls per game away from home this year, placing him in the 87th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
The Kings are expected to see a decline in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the least up-tempo pace home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Denver Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Kings grade out 5thworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.
With the home court advantage, the Nuggets have given up the 7th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.1) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
Keegan Murray should experience a decrease in output in all facets of the game due to being on the road in this matchup.

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