Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 11/27/2024

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Keegan Murray

NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Sacramento Kings · Nov 27, 2024

Updated Nov 28, 2024 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-143/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Keegan Murray lands in the 80th percentile for shot attempts from downtown, logging 5.8 per game this year.
Keegan Murray has averaged 36.9 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 98th percentile.
With respect to offense, the Sacramento Kings's excellent 48.3% field goal rate rates 5th-highest in the NBA this year.
The 6th-speediest tempo away team in the league over the last 8 games has been the Kings.
Keegan Murray has made 90.0% of his free throws away from home this year, ranking in the 81st percentile out of all players in the league.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Keegan Murray ranks in the 93rd percentile for personal fouls, compiling a whopping 3.0 fouls per game while playing away from home this year.
The matchup vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves is a challenging one; they have given up the least points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PFs this year (14.5).
The Timberwolves have played at the 5th-least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to decrease plays for the Kings.
The Kings have been the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 3.1 free throws per game (9th-lowest in the league) against the Timberwolves, struggling to draw fouls.

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