Julius Randle Points - Player Prop Bet 5/6/2023

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Julius Randle

NBA · Player Props

Julius Randle

F-C · New York Knicks

Points

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks · May 6, 2023

Updated May 5, 2023 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Julius Randle Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-123/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Julius Randle has played 34.7 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 95th percentile.
The New York Knicks check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while playing away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.1) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
Julius Randle has attempted 6.7 free throws per game this year, placing him in the 97th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

Favors Under

Julius Randle has successfully made 38.5% of his field goals over the last 15 games, -6.1% lower than he's converted over the course of the season.
Julius Randle has successfully made 20.6% of his 3-point shots over the last 10 games, -9.4% lower than he's made from 3-point range in all games this year.
The New York Knicks have been the 5th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The matchup vs. the Heat is a tough one for 3-pointers; opposing starting PFs have shot for the 14th-lowest three rate in the NBA this year (28.6%).
The New York Knicks have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games while on the road.

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