Josh Green Points - Player Prop Bet 1/20/2023

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Josh Green

NBA · Player Props

Josh Green

G · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat · Jan 20, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Green Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Josh Green has made 81.2% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games at home, 15.5% more than he's made over the course of the year while on his home court.
Josh Green has successfully made an impressive 67.1% of his free throws this season, significantly higher than his 58.6 rate last season.
Josh Green has averaged 26.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 5.6 higher than he's averaged overall this season at home.
As a team, the Dallas Mavericks have been very successful at getting to the foul line: 2nd-best in the NBA this year, drawing 26.4 free throw attempts per game.
The Heat have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (8.8) in the league to their opposition this year (which can also provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Josh Green has tallied 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.1 more than he's tallied in all games this year.
The matchup against the Heat is a difficult one for threes; opposing squads have totaled the 4th-least 3-pointers per game in the NBA this year (13.3).
The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (which will also lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league this year.
The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should decrease possessions for the Heat.

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