Jordan Poole Points - Player Prop Bet 4/15/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Jordan Poole

G · Golden State Warriors

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors · Apr 15, 2023

Updated Apr 16, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Poole Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jordan Poole has attempted 15.6 field goals per game this year, a big improvement over his 13.4 rate last year.
Jordan Poole has attempted 7.5 shots from behind the three-point arc per game on the road this year, ranking in the 96th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
The Golden State Warriors have played at the 2nd-fastest pace in the league this year.
The Golden State Warriors have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Kings have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.7) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jordan Poole has tallied 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's tallied overall this year.
This matchup is a positive one for field goals; when the Kings are playing at home, opposing clubs have shot for the highest FG% in the NBA against them this year (50.7%).
The Kings have played at the 9th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to decreased plays for the Warriors.
As a team, the Golden State Warriors have been bad at getting to the free throw line: worst in the NBA this year, totaling a lowly 20.2 free throws per game.
This matchup may be a strong one for getting to the free throw line; when the Kings have the home court advantage, opposing squads have attempted a colossal 26.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games (2nd-most in the league).