Jonathan Mogbo Points - Player Prop Bet 12/26/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jonathan Mogbo

F · Toronto Raptors

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors · Dec 26, 2024

Updated Dec 26, 2024 8:05 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Mogbo Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonathan Mogbo has converted 50.0% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games on the road, 10.0% more than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the season when playing away from home.
Jonathan Mogbo has been on the court for 25.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.5 more than he's been on the court for overall this year.
The 4th-quickest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Toronto Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from being pitted against the fastest pace offense in the NBA this year (the Memphis Grizzlies).
The Raptors have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Raptors rank as the 2nd-least aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc.
The rate of field goals scored against Zach Edey has been quite low (42.3%) when he is at home and defending opposing starting Cs this year (4th percentile).
The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting Cs vs. Zach Edey has been very low this year (1.2 foul shot attempts per game when they are at home: 4th percentile).
Jonathan Mogbo will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium usually reduces player production in all facets of the game.