Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 4/3/2024

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Jonas Valanciunas

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Orlando Magic · Apr 3, 2024

Updated Apr 4, 2024 2:37 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Jonas Valanciunas places in the 84th percentile for shooting proficiency playing at home with a remarkable 54.5% rate this year.
The matchup against Wendell Carter Jr. is a strong one for shots from the field; when Carter Jr. is on the road other starting Cs this year, they have sunk a whopping 65.4% of their shots from the field (100th percentile).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and bring about more chances for scoring and assists, and the Pelicans rank 7th-best in in the NBA at home with 11.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.
Jonas Valanciunas will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city usually boosts stat production for all stats.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has converted 21.8% of his treys over the last 15 games, 9.1% lower than he's converted from three in all games this year.
Jonas Valanciunas has committed 2.4 personal fouls per game on his home court this year, putting him in the 86th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
In regard to shooting, the Pelicans's lackluster 107.2 points per game settles in as the 8th-lowest in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 9th-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The New Orleans Pelicans are expected to experience a decrease in plays in this contest from facing the 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play visiting team in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Orlando Magic).

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