Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 3/28/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Milwaukee Bucks · Mar 28, 2024

Updated Mar 28, 2024 10:56 PM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has successfully made 68.4% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 12.8% more than he's put through the net over the course of the year.
When facing fellow starting Cs, Brook Lopez rates in the 100th percentile with a whopping 12.3 shots from the field against him per game this year.
The Pelicans will likely see an increase in opportunities in this contest from squaring off against the 5th-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Milwaukee Bucks).
The Pelicans rank as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Among all players in the league, Jonas Valanciunas places in the 75th percentile for free throws converted at home, averaging a whopping 1.9 per game this year.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Jonas Valanciunas slots into the 88th percentile for personal fouls, totaling a monstrous 2.5 fouls per game while at home this year.
The 9th-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the New Orleans Pelicans.
The matchup vs. Brook Lopez is a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; when facing other starting Cs this year, they have attempted a measly 2.5 free throws per game (3rd percentile).