Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 3/26/2024

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Jonas Valanciunas

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Mar 26, 2024

Updated Mar 27, 2024 1:29 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has converted 71.8% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 16.1% more than he's converted over the course of the year.
The Pelicans rank as the 7th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year.
The matchup against Chet Holmgren is a favorable one; he has given up a colossal 16.8 points per game when playing away from home when facing opposing starting Cs this year (93rd percentile).
The Thunder have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to increase opportunities for the Pelicans.
Jonas Valanciunas has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games at home, 14.5% more than he's made in all games this season playing at home.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has averaged 2.6 personal fouls per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 90th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone.
The Pelicans have played at the 10th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Pelicans rank 4thworst in in the league with only 8.4 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

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