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Jonas Valanciunas

Jonas Valanciunas Points
Player Prop - 2/23/2024

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jonas Valanciunas has sunk 64.3% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 6.6% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year.

Jonas Valanciunas has converted 64.0% of his 3-point shots over the last 10 games at home, 32.4% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc over the course of the year on his home court.

The Pelicans have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage.

The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 5 games, opposing teams have grabbed 6.2 offensive boards per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Heat (shortening possessions that could otherwise lead to additional opportunities for offense).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Among all players in the NBA, Jonas Valanciunas comes in at the 90th percentile for personal fouls, registering a whopping 2.7 fouls per game while playing at home this year.

In terms of shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 8th-least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Pelicans.

This matchup is a favorable one for three-point attempts; their opposition has averaged the 4th-most three attempts per game in the league over the last 20 games (38.3).

The matchup with Bam Adebayo slots into the 3rd percentile for difficulty with rival starting Cs logging a mere 11.9 points per game this year.

The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games away from their home court, which should lead to fewer possessions for the New Orleans Pelicans.

More Jonas Valanciunas Player Props

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