Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Boston Celtics vs New Orleans Pelicans · Jan 29, 2024

Updated Jan 30, 2024 3:58 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has sunk 54.5% of his shots from the field when playing away from home this year, ranking in the 84th percentile out of all players in the league.
This year, their opposition has shot 45.1% on shot attempts from the field (worst in the NBA) vs. the Boston Celtics, branding this as a difficult matchup.
When facing fellow starting Cs, Al Horford places in the 90th percentile with a massive 2.2 three-pointers attempted against him per game this year.
The 6th-quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the New Orleans Pelicans.
Offensive rebounds save possession and produce added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Pelicans rank 7thbest in in the league with 10.9 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Jonas Valanciunas places in the 97th percentile for personal fouls, tallying a colossal 3.1 fouls per game this year.
As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 3rd-least aggressive team in the NBA away from their home court this year has been the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Pelicans are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 4th-slowest tempo home team in the league over the last 20 games (the Boston Celtics).
While on their home court, the Celtics have allowed the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.6) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
The faceoff with Al Horford with respect to getting to the charity stripe places in the 23rd percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting Cs attempting only 2.9 free throws per game this year.