Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 12/19/2023

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Jonas Valanciunas

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies · Dec 19, 2023

Updated Dec 20, 2023 3:22 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has sunk 72.2% of his field goals over the last 5 games at home, 12.0% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the season with the home court advantage.
The Pelicans check in as the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 20 games.
The Pelicans have played at the 7th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The New Orleans Pelicans are expected to see an increase in opportunities today from competing against the 7th-speediest pace-of-play visiting team in the NBA this year (the Memphis Grizzlies).
The Memphis Grizzlies have given up the 7th-least offensive rebounds per game (10.4) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has successfully made 18.0% of his attempts from beyond the arc playing at home this year, ranking in the 12th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Jonas Valanciunas has accumulated 3.1 personal fouls per game while at home this year, putting him in the 94th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
The New Orleans Pelicans check in as the 3rd-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games playing at home with respect to three-point attempts.
The number of baskets made against Bismack Biyombo has been quite low (5.0 per game) when defending other starting Cs this year (3rd percentile).

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