Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 12/13/2023

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Jonas Valanciunas

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Washington Wizards vs New Orleans Pelicans · Dec 13, 2023

Updated Dec 14, 2023 12:13 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has converted 50.1% of his shot attempts from the field when playing at home this year, ranking in the 77th percentile out of all players in the league.
Relative to last season's 38.2% clip, Jonas Valanciunas's three-point proficiency has spiked this season to 42.5%.
The matchup vs. Washington is a good one; when the Washington Wizards are on their home court, they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting Cs this year (17.7).
The 9th-quickest pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 11 games has been the Pelicans.
The Pelicans are expected to see an increase in possessions in this game from competing against the speediest pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Washington Wizards).

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Jonas Valanciunas measures in the 94th percentile for personal fouls, totaling a monstrous 3.2 fouls per game while at home this year.
The New Orleans Pelicans rank as the 9th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA away from their home court this year.
The Wizards have allowed the 2nd-most offensive boards per game (13.1) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
Jonas Valanciunas stands to suffer a reduction in productivity for all stats as a result of being on the road in this matchup.

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