Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 11/4/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks · Nov 4, 2023

Updated Nov 4, 2023 8:42 PM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Jonas Valanciunas measures in the 86th percentile for scoring ability without the home court advantage with a a terrific 54.6% rate since the start of last season.
Jonas Valanciunas has sunk 36.7% of his 3-point shots since the start of last season, placing him in the 77th percentile among all players in the league.
The {OPP_TEAM} are expected to see an increase in plays in this game from being pitted against the 3rd-most up-tempo pace offense in the NBA this year (the Hawks).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and create further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Pelicans grade out 6thbest in in the NBA with 11.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
Jonas Valanciunas will likely see an increase in production in all stat categories considering owning the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has accumulated 3.0 personal fouls per game since the start of last season, placing him among the highest-fouling players in the league (92nd percentile).
The Pelicans check in as the 2nd-least aggressive offense in the NBA while on their home court since the start of last season when it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc.
Since the start of last season, the other team's starting Cs have averaged 26.6% on threes (14th-worst in the league) against the Hawks, designating this as a hard matchup.
Since the start of last season when they are on their home court, their opposition has snagged 10.6 offensive boards per game (10th-most in the league) vs. the Atlanta Hawks (saving possessions that can generate extra chances for offense).
The matchup vs. Atlanta is a difficult one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting Cs have attempted a lowly 3.1 foul shots per game since the start of last season when the Atlanta Hawks are on their home court (6th-least in the NBA).