Jonas Valanciunas Points - Player Prop Bet 1/31/2023

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans · Jan 31, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has converted 8.4 buckets per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.8 more than he's sunk in all games this season away from his home court.
Jonas Valanciunas has made 55.6% of his three-pointers over the last 10 games on the road, 12.4% more than he's made over the course of the year when playing on the road.
Jonas Valanciunas has attempted 4.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.2 higher than he's attempted in all games this season on the road.
The New Orleans Pelicans have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games while playing away from home (which can also provide new chances for scoring and assists).
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 5th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games without the home court advantage.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has committed 3.0 personal fouls per game when playing on the road this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
The Nuggets have allowed the 5th-least offensive rebounds per game (11.6) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 15 games when playing at home (which also eliminates additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Nuggets may be a challenging one for getting to the free throw line; their opposition have attempted a lowly 25.9 free throws per game over the last 15 games while on his home court (4th-least in the NBA).
The New Orleans Pelicans check in as the least aggressive offense in the NBA without the home court advantage this year in terms of attempts from beyond the arc.
The Pelicans have played at the 7th-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 20 games, which should reduce plays for the Nuggets.