Jonas Valanciunas Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 1/26/2024

NBA · Player Props

Jonas Valanciunas

C · New Orleans Pelicans

Made 3 Point Shots

New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Jan 26, 2024

Updated Jan 27, 2024 1:32 AM EST

Analysis

Jonas Valanciunas Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonas Valanciunas has converted 55.0% of his three-point attempts over the last 5 games at home, 27.2% more than he's converted from 3-point range overall this season when playing at home.
The New Orleans Pelicans are expected to see a rise in opportunities in this game from being pitted against the 9th-quickest tempo offense in the league this year (the Oklahoma City Thunder).
Offensive rebounds save possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, and the New Orleans Pelicans grade out 12thbest in in the NBA when playing at home with 13.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
Jonas Valanciunas will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage generally increases player performance in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

Jonas Valanciunas has committed 2.9 personal fouls per game while at home this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone.
With respect to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 8th-least aggressive offense in the league this year has been the New Orleans Pelicans.
The matchup vs. Chet Holmgren is a difficult one for shots from downtown; when Holmgren is on the road and squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year, they have averaged a measly 0.3 3-pointers per game (3rd percentile).
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 6th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 15 games.
This year, opposing squads have captured 12.8 offensive boards per game (2nd-highest in the NBA) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder (preserving possessions that can generate further chances for offense).