John Collins Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 1/25/2023

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John Collins

NBA · Player Props

John Collins

F-C · Atlanta Hawks

Rebounds

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks · Jan 25, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

John Collins Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-120/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

John Collins has compiled 8.3 rebounds per game on the road this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile -- near the top of the league by this metric.
John Collins has been on the court for 30.9 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 81st percentile.
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games away from home.
The Hawks have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games with the home court advantage, which should lead to increased possessions for the Thunder.

Favors Under

John Collins has averaged 3.4 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the highest-fouling players in the NBA (98th percentile).
The Thunder have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (12.4) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (which will also lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
The Atlanta Hawks have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (which also reduces additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
John Collins will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing while traveling generally worsens player performance for all stats.

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