John Collins Points - Player Prop Bet 3/4/2024

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John Collins

NBA · Player Props

John Collins

F-C · Utah Jazz

Points

Utah Jazz vs Washington Wizards · Mar 4, 2024

Updated Mar 5, 2024 3:03 AM EST

Analysis

John Collins Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

John Collins has totaled 14.7 points per game while at home this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile -- one of the best in the league by this metric.
Over the last 25 games, opposing teams have totaled 31.8 3-point attempts per game (3rd-lowest in the league) vs. the Wizards, making this a challenging matchup.
The matchup vs. Marvin Bagley III is a strong one for scoring; when guarding other starting Cs this year, they have converted an enormous 62.5% of their field goals (97th percentile).
The Jazz have played at the 3rd-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while playing at home.
The Utah Jazz will likely see an increase in possessions in this contest from facing the most up-tempo tempo offense in the league this year (the Washington Wizards).

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, John Collins lands in the 89th percentile for personal fouls, totaling a colossal 2.6 fouls per game playing at home this year.
The Washington Wizards have given up the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.3) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

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