John Collins Points - Player Prop Bet 2/6/2024

NBA · Player Props

John Collins

F-C · Utah Jazz

Points

Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Feb 6, 2024

Updated Feb 7, 2024 4:06 AM EST

Analysis

John Collins Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

John Collins has successfully made 60.1% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, 7.4% higher than he's made overall this season.
This year, the other team has averaged 44.9% on field goal attempts (2nd-weakest in the league) vs. the Thunder, resulting in a challenging matchup.
The Utah Jazz have played at the 5th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games as the home team.
The Jazz have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).
The clash with Chet Holmgren with respect to getting to the charity stripe slots into only the 100th percentile for difficulty with opposing starting Cs attempting a monstrous 5.0 foul shots per game this year when they are playing at home.

Favors Under

John Collins has been called for 2.7 personal fouls per game when playing at home this year, ranking in the 89th percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
The number of three-point shots attempted against Chet Holmgren has been quite low (1.0 per game) when playing on the road and defending opposing starting Cs this year (3rd percentile).
The Utah Jazz will likely see a decline in possessions today from competing against the 4th-most sluggish tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Oklahoma City Thunder).
The Oklahoma City Thunder have allowed the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.5) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Relative to last season's 81.3% rate, John Collins's foul-shot efficiency has fallen this season to 73.1%.