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John Collins

John Collins Points
Player Prop - 1/1/2024

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks

John Collins Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The clash with Dereck Lively II measures in just the 96th percentile for difficulty with rival starting Cs burying a monstrous 6.4 shots per game this year.

The Mavericks have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace in the league away from their home court this year, which should lead to more opportunities for the Utah Jazz.

Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Utah Jazz grade out 2ndbest in in the NBA with 13.2 offensive rebounds per game this year.

John Collins has converted 91.7% of his foul shot attempts over the last 10 games, 13.4% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this season.

John Collins will hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home stadium tends to raise player production for all stats.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

John Collins has averaged 2.7 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the league (86th percentile).

The Utah Jazz have been the 4th-least efficient shooting team in the league over the last 25 games.

This year, the other team has captured 11.8 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-most in the NBA) against the Mavericks (maintaining possessions that can result in extra opportunities for offense).

The matchup against Dereck Lively II is a challenging one for getting to the charity stripe; when Lively II is on the visiting team and facing other starting Cs this year, they have attempted a mere 2.3 foul shots per game (15th percentile).

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