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John Collins

John Collins Points
Player Prop - 12/30/2023

Utah Jazz vs Miami Heat

John Collins Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This year, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 43.4% on threes (29th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Heat, making this a favorable matchup.

The Jazz check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 20 games, their opposition has snagged 8.9 offensive rebounds per game (lowest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat (turning over possessions that could otherwise lead to additional chances for offense).

John Collins has successfully made 92.9% of his free throw attempts over the last 10 games, 14.6% higher than he's made overall this season.

John Collins will enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home usually boosts player performance for all stats.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

John Collins has averaged 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the NBA (85th percentile).

The Jazz rank as the least efficient shooting team in the league over the last 5 games when playing at home.

The Jazz will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from being pitted against the slowest pace road offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Miami Heat).

The matchup vs. the Heat may be a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting PFs have attempted a lowly 1.8 free throws per game over the last 10 games (13th-least in the league).

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