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John Collins

John Collins Points
Player Prop - 3/6/2023

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks

John Collins Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

John Collins has made 6.1 baskets per game this year, ranking in the 85th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

John Collins has tallied 29.8 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 81st percentile.

The matchup against Miami is a positive one for attempts from beyond the arc; when the Heat are on their home court, the other team's starting PFs have totaled the 27th-most three attempts per game in the league since the start of last season (4.7).

The Atlanta Hawks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).

The Heat have allowed the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

John Collins has failed to make 2.6 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.8 more than he's failed to convert from 3-point range in all games this season on the road.

John Collins has averaged 2.6 personal fouls per game when playing on the road this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled.

The Atlanta Hawks have been the 10th-least aggressive offense in the league on the road this year as it relates to three-point attempts.

The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 9th-slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games.

The Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the league this year, which should reduce plays for the Hawks.

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