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Jimmy Butler Points Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-106/-114).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -106.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Jimmy Butler has registered 25.8 points per game over the last 5 games, 3.9 more than he's registered in all games this year.Jimmy Butler has converted 60.6% of his 3-point shots over the last 15 games, 13.3% more than he's made from 3-point range overall this season.Out of all players in the NBA, Jimmy Butler measures in the 90th percentile for playing time, posting an enormous 33.1 minutes per game while on the road this year.With respect to threes, the Miami Heat's impressive 37.6% rate of made threes measures as the 7th-highest in the NBA this year.The Miami Heat are expected to see a rise in plays today from facing the 3rd-fastest pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Mavericks).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The matchup against Dallas is a difficult one for threes; when the Dallas Mavericks are at home, the opposition's starting SFs have averaged the 15th-least shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the NBA this year (0.8).The slowest pace-of-play visiting offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Miami Heat.Offensive rebounds preserve possession and bring about further chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat rank 3rdworst in in the NBA away from their home court with only 9.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.When playing at home, the Mavericks have given up the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (11.7) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).Over the last 15 games, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 1.9 free throws per game (12th-lowest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, making it tough to get to the foul line.
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