Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 6/17/2024

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Jayson Tatum

NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks · Jun 17, 2024

Updated Jun 18, 2024 12:36 AM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Jayson Tatum ranks in the 98th percentile, putting up a whopping 26.4 points per game this year.
Jayson Tatum has averaged 41.9 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.3 more than he's averaged over the course of the season.
The Celtics check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games playing at home.
The matchup against the Dallas Mavericks is a positive one for shot attempts from the field; the other team's starting PFs have tallied the most field goal attempts per game in the NBA this year (16.0).
Over the last 5 games when they are at home, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 6.0 free throws per game (6th-most in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, succeeding in their efforts to get to the charity stripe.

Favors Under

Jayson Tatum has committed 2.9 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 more than he's committed in all games this year.
The Boston Celtics have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Boston Celtics will likely suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this game from being pitted against the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo team in the league over the last 20 games (the Dallas Mavericks).
The Boston Celtics rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
Jayson Tatum has successfully made just 5.7 foul shots per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 6.9 rate last season.

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