Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 4/27/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · Apr 27, 2024

Updated Apr 27, 2024 10:03 PM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jayson Tatum has attempted 21.6 shots from the field per game over the last 10 games while playing on the road, 2.1 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season on the road.
In comparison to last season's 5.9 rate, Jayson Tatum's off the mark 3-point shots have tailed off this season to 5.1 per game.
Out of all players in the NBA, Jayson Tatum ranks in the 98th percentile for playing time, logging a monstrous 35.9 minutes per game this year.
The matchup vs. Miami is a positive one for three-pointers; when the Miami Heat are at home, opposing starting PFs have compiled the highest three percentage in the league this year (46.4%).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce further chances for scoring and assists, and the Celtics grade out 7th-best in in the NBA while on the road with 11.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

Favors Under

The Boston Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games while playing away from home.
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish tempo in the league this year, which should decrease plays for the Celtics.
As a team, the Boston Celtics have been lousy at getting to the free-throw line in recent days: worst in the NBA over the last 15 games, tallying a mere 16.6 foul shot attempts per game.
The matchup vs. the Heat may be a challenging one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PFs have attempted a measly 1.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (2nd-least in the NBA).
Jayson Tatum is expected to suffer a drop-off in performance in all facets of the game as a result of playing away from home in this matchup.