Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 3/17/2024

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Jayson Tatum

NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Washington Wizards vs Boston Celtics · Mar 17, 2024

Updated Mar 17, 2024 11:02 PM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jayson Tatum has tallied 27.0 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the league in this category: 98th percentile.
In contrast to last season's 5.9 mark, Jayson Tatum's off the mark three-pointers have declined this season to 5.2 per game.
Jayson Tatum has been on the court for 35.9 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 98th percentile.
The Boston Celtics will likely see a rise in plays today from facing the most up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league this year (the Wizards).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and result in further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Celtics rank 2nd-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 13.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

The matchup against Washington is a difficult one; when the Washington Wizards have the home court advantage, they have allowed the 2nd-least points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting SGs this year (10.9).
The Boston Celtics have played at the most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 10 games while playing on the road.
Jayson Tatum has attempted a lowly 6.6 foul shots per game this season, significantly less than his 8.1 rate last season.
In regard to drawing fouls, the Boston Celtics's subpar 17.2 free throws per game rates worst in the league over the last 20 games.
Over the last 20 games, opposing starting SGs have attempted 2.2 foul shots per game (3rd-lowest in the league) against the Wizards, making it tough to draw fouls.

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