Jayson Tatum Points - Player Prop Bet 3/5/2024

NBA · Player Props

Jayson Tatum

F-G · Boston Celtics

Points

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics · Mar 5, 2024

Updated Mar 6, 2024 12:43 AM EST

Analysis

Jayson Tatum Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-141/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -134 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jayson Tatum has averaged 27.1 points per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the NBA by this metric: 98th percentile.
Jayson Tatum has averaged 35.8 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 98th percentile.
The Celtics have been the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games.
Playing at home, the Cleveland Cavaliers have given up the least offensive boards per game (8.4) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 5 games when they are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 5.8 foul shots per game (28th-most in the NBA) against the Cavaliers, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Jayson Tatum slots into the 76th percentile for technical fouls, logging a whopping 0.0 fouls per game without the home court advantage this year.
The matchup vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers is a difficult one for scoring; the opposing team's starting PFs have posted the 12th-lowest FG% in the league this year (44.1%).
The 2nd-least up-tempo tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Celtics.
The Cavaliers have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Boston Celtics.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).